EM market report shipping containers

Barrage of weaker data points towards a global slowdown

Mudassar Malik 24 June 2022

GBP: Pound holds ground as services data exceeds expectations

EUR: Big misses in PMIs and German gas woes weigh on the euro

USD: Recession fears see the dollar pull back

Sterling

Manufacturing PMI data for the UK only slightly missed the forecasted figure, whilst services data actually beat expectations, helping the pound find its feet across the day. However, signs of a slowdown are never too far away as CBI retail sales plummeted to a -5 print from a previous -1.

Retail sales this morning have fallen drastically and missed expectations though the pound is so far unscathed. Later today will see the release of the Bank of England quarterly bulletin, markets will be keen to take away any new information on the economy, inflation, rate hikes and the slowdown in growth.

Euro

Services and manufacturing PMIs across the eurozone also missed target yesterday morning, with figures showing a big misses in the French and German figures, pressuring the single currency. The euro came under pressure again as the German economic minister, Robert Habeck, said that whilst there would “hopefully never” be a need to ration gas, but added that it could not be ruled out. This comes following the announcement that will see old coal-fired power plants being reactivated.

German business climate index is likely to show a drop off in sentiment, but any concerns here could see some pressure on the single currency. The European Council meeting will start tomorrow, with Ukraine’s membership application due to be discussed in addition to the economic situation in the eurozone.

USD

The tale of the economic slowdown continued across the pond in the afternoon, as with the eurozone, both manufacturing and services PMIs missed their mark.

The testimony only fuelled concerns of recession further as Powell stated that the rates increases are “designed to drive growth down to a level that’s more sustainable and give the supply side a chance to catch up” however, he added that there is a risk that unemployment will move up. Wall Street however, rallied higher in a risk-on mode, which saw the dollar fall back.

With only the Michigan consumer sentiment figure out later this afternoon, which is likely to show a significant fall, we could see the dollar lose some ground as softer data points to recession woes, which in turn sees the market start to scale back bets on future monetary tightening from the Fed.

Market rates

Today's Interbank Rates at 09:18am against sterling movement vs yesterday.

Euro

€1.164 ↑

US dollar

$1.225 ↑

Australian dollar

$1.777 ↑

South African rand

R19.52 ↑

Japanese yen

¥165.0 ↓

Have a great day.