The jobs report in the US will likely set the tone for the pound this afternoon, with a quiet domestic calendar in the UK today. Whilst the pound is likely to drop against the buck if employment data exceeds expectations, we may see a rise against the euro, which seems to be more sensitive to hawkish Interest Rate expectations across the Atlantic.
The single currency continues to claw back its own identity, following a positive inflation reading earlier in the week. The EUR/USD rate is now at the best level in a month and could continue to climb if the ECB begin to mention tapering of stimulus or interest rate rises.
The Bloomberg spot index moved around 0.3% lower yesterday, which acted as the catalyst for further USD weakness, resulting in the GBP/USD rate scaling the 1.3840 level for the first time since mid-August. We have the customary Friday US employment report today at 1:30pm UK time. Non-Farm payrolls are expected to rise by 725k and the unemployment rate is set to drop to 5.1% by 0.3%. A string of positive data throughout the month of September could result in the Fed beginning to taper stimulus before the end of 2021.
The AUD has posted further gains across the board following news that 80% of the Australian population will be vaccinated in the near future, which will increase pressure on the government to lift state-wide lockdowns. We have the AUD Retail Sales Figure release today.
Today’s Interbank Rates at 08:55 against sterling. Movement vs yesterday.