GBP: Sterling holding up well
EUR: Out of mind until next week
USD: Jobs numbers due at 13.30
Sterling is out of the limelight this week although focus will once again fall on the ability of the UK government to advance the reopening of the UK economy a fortnight from now. June 21st has been held up as a date that will sink or swim sterling, but we have our doubts over the near-term impact on GBP; any delays will be light, and the majority of the economy is open already. It would be closures of existing venues that holds the most risk.
UK data comes in the form of GDP data on Friday, and we believe that the trend of a weakening USD in wider markets should allow GBPUSD to track higher towards our target of 1.44.
The latest ECB meeting will take place on Thursday and the main focus for EUR watchers will be talk from the central bank as to the prospects of tapering stimulus. This is not going to happen anytime soon however and, we think this could limit the prospects of EUR downside in the short term.
Election results over the weekend in Germany suggest that September’s general election will be tight but a win for the Greens could prompt further EUR upside.
Friday’s payrolls report was once again disappointing with the number of jobs added in the US missing estimates. The US added 559,000 jobs in May below the 675,000 that economists had forecast and although wages rose and the unemployment rate fell, this was not an optimistic figure.
In the short term, the mood in dollar markets will be pessimistic until wage pressures push inflation expectations higher and jobs numbers start beating estimates, prompting a change in language from the Federal Reserve. Until then, the dollar should remain on the back foot.
The CAD remains the currency to keep an eye on and although the Bank of Canada meeting is not going to be the most eye-opening of events, pressure to talk about tapering and a strong vaccine program locally should be enough to keep the CAD bid.
Today’s interbank rates at 08.25 against sterling. Movement vs yesterday.
|US dollar||$1.412 ↓|
|Australian dollar||$1.826 ↓|
|South African rand||R19.00 ↓|
|Japanese yen||¥154.8 ↓|
Have a great day.