GBP: Not happy with new Brexit deadline
EUR: Same as it ever was
USD: Not going anywhere
A battle between the EU and UK over the Northern Ireland protocol looks set to run and run until October 1st, the date set for a decision over the rules and regulations of trade between Northern Ireland and the EU.
The increase in Covid-19 cases alongside the easing of restrictions and Brexit news means that the next few months sterling will have to deal with more political headlines than most.
This morning’s retail sales numbers were strong and we expect sterling to hold up at current levels into the weekend.
Yesterday’s ECB meeting was a strange one with a lot said but very little of it new. It is clear that the ECB wants to follow the Federal Reserve’s policy of targeting inflation above 2% in order to bring the average rate higher but history suggests that they’ve found it difficult to get to 2%, let alone passed it, for many a year.
Data remains front and centre for the performance of the euro at the moment but it’s clear that for any positive moves in favour of the euro, European data is going to have to come to the fore.
This recent dollar strength is not going anywhere, and with markets in the middle of the summer doldrums most currency pairs are set to remain rangebound for now. With US data not shooting the lights out but handily beating most other G10 nations, the dollar will continue to drive markets forward.
Data today will give further insight as to the confidence in the world’s largest economy although case numbers of the delta variant have increased markedly in the past few weeks.
Japan is closed for the day although this has little to do with the Olympics beginning. Yen strength seen this week should sag as we get closer to Autumn given the delays to reopening we expect in the country.
Today’s Interbank Rates at 10:02 against sterling. Movement vs yesterday.
|US dollar||$1.373 ↑|
|Australian dollar||$1.862 ↑|
|South African rand||R20.28 ↑|
|Japanese yen||¥151.7 ↑|
Have a great day and a better weekend.