EM Market Report

US debt ceiling worries intensify

Lawrence Kaplin
Lawrence Kaplin 09 May 2023

- Sterling trades at new 2023 highs vs the euro

- ECB warn inflation still has “a lot of momentum”

- Yellen warns US Treasury will run out of cash by 1st June

Recap

Trading was very quiet yesterday as the UK enjoyed the additional Coronation bank holiday, and with no major economic data releases, the currency markets remained in a very tight range. The Fed released its latest banking conditions survey which showed an increased tightening in lending standards and economic slowdown concerns along with deposit outflows as the recent banking crisis takes hold.

Today

Market rates

* Daily move - against G10 rates at 8:00am, 09.05.23

** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 8:00am, 09.05.23

Table9-5

Data points

Tabledata9-5

Speeches

  • EUR ECB's Lane

  • EUR ECB's Schnabel
  • USD Fed's Jefferson 
  • USD Fed's Williams

Our thoughts

Markets are likely to once again trade in a narrow range today ahead of tomorrow’s key US inflation report where a slight fall in the annual Core rate from 5.6% to 5.5% is expected. With the clock ticking on the US debt ceiling, US President Joe Biden is due to meet later today with Congressional leaders as lawmakers try to break a stalemate over how to increase the borrowing limit and try and thrash out a deal. Over the weekend US Treasury Secretary Yellen warned failure to reach an agreement would lead to a steep economic slowdown.

Sterling continues to inch higher against the euro ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England MPC meeting where interest rates are expected to be raised by 0.25% from 4.25% to 4.5%.

Have a great day.